Bear Market Rally Over Says Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo: Bear market rally ends

Chris Harvey of Wells Fargo & Co has declared the end of the bear market rally that wiped out up to $12 trillion in US equity values.

According to the equity analyst, the recent pullback in investment-grade corporate bond yields does not align with the prevailing fear that the S&P 500 will renew a selloff and reach its October lows. Additionally, healthy balance sheets at the corporate and consumer levels indicate a subdued level of systemic risk, indicating that the catalyst for an extended market downturn is largely absent. Harvey predicts that downtrends often end with sharp tightenings and healthy issuance, similar to what we have experienced over the past few months.

In a note on Monday, he stated that when downtrends progress to the "next level," we typically see spreads widen, not tighten, as we have observed today. He further supports this view on systemic risk by pointing to IG spreads.

Wells Fargo report declares bear market rally ends

In a recent research note, Wells Fargo, America's fourth-largest bank, announced that the downtrend is over, but there is no uptrend in store. The report acknowledged a new market trend that is not explicitly bullish but indicates that the bear market is behind us.

"The bear market is over, but it is not the great regulation," stated Harvey, adding he sees neither a bear nor a bull market, "just a market". While investors may expect a sharp reversal, the report predicts a "giveback" that is not likely to be immediate.

Wells Fargo's current analysis suggests that mid-cap growth stocks present the best risk/reward potential. The report recommends pharmaceutical equities as a preferred defensive play. Furthermore, the S&P 500 has increased by 7% in 2023, rising to nearly 4,092 in Monday trading. This number is close to Wells Fargo's S&P 500 price target of 4,200 for the year.