Bitcoin Records Latest All Time High
Champagne corks were flying early Tuesday morning as another Bitcoin all time high was recorded.
According to average market data from Coinmarketcap.com, the price of Bitcoin topped out at $68,530 at 4:00am Tuesday morning (GMT), making November a month of serious gains for Bitcoin holders and investors so far.
Such a strong and continued surge in the recent price, resulting in the latest Bitcoin all time high, has renewed confidence in the $100,000 target before the end of the year. Indeed, many market pundits believe this magical milestone could even be achieved by the end of November.
The strong price action of Bitcoin is closely following historical trends that have been set post Bitcoin halving events in 2012 and 2016.
A Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years) when the block reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half. As a consequence, demand for Bitcoin increases as supply is cut in half, leading to scarcity and a surge in price.
Previous Bitcoin halvings in November 2012 and July 2016 saw huge price rallies lasting up to 18 months before the price corrected and significant pull backs occur. However, many market experts are expecting the current price to continue to trend upward through Christmas and into 2022.
When the price will correct is up for debate, although the majority of market commentators believe $100,000 per Bitcoin is more than achievable this cycle.
Stock to Flow Model
This cause for optimism can be largely attributed to what is known as the ‘Stock to Flow’ model created in 2019 by the pseudonymous Plan B. The Stock to Flow, or S2F, model looks at the supply dynamics of Bitcoin in relation to previous halving cycles.
In particular, the model divides the remaining Bitcoin left to mine by the rate of annual production.
Price targets formulated by the model following the May 2020 halving have so far proven to be extremely accurate. The August 2021 target of the $47,000 was pretty much spot on as was the following September target of $43,000. Although last month’s target of $63,000 was out by just 3% many believe the November target of $98,000 is more than achievable. Interestingly, the model predicts that 2021 will end with a Bitcoin price close to $135,000.
You may be thinking this all seems too good to be true and you may be right.
Plan B anticipates the current rally will end sometime towards the end of Q1 2022 before the market experiences a significant price correction. While many people tend to agree with his analysis there are those who are taking into account the different socio-economic times we are living in now compared to 2016 and 2012.
As the world adjusts to a post-Covid reality, decentralised networks, the metaverse, NFTs and shared working spaces are becoming increasingly mainstream. This in turn could mean the price of Bitcoin and other leading digital assets remain high as more investors realise the serious potential that this new asset class brings to the investing table.
Author: Mark Harridge
Mark Harridge first came across Bitcoin and began to use its peer-to-peer payment network in mid to late-2011. He quickly understood that this technology would change the world. Mark is passionate about crypto adoption, from a macro economic and institutional perspective, and the numerous factors that fuel the relentless march towards individual self sovereignty and the decentralised society of the future.