BTC Price: Bitcoin Update
The BTC price is now trading at $28K, indicating that it is highly oversold, as evidenced by RSI levels around 30%.
Indeed, the RSI has hit levels not seen since the May 2021 crisis. The price may have a positive retracement and retest the broken $30K barrier in the immediate term. However, it is also feasible that it will continue to fall towards $24K and $20K, which might eventually indicate a mid-term bottom.
The 50-day and 100-day moving averages also form a bearish crossing, which might increase the likelihood of lower prices sooner rather than later. BTC price has broken below the huge bearish flag that has been building over the previous few months, indicating a negative continuation scenario.
The downtrend is presently displaying symptoms of fatigue, with the past few candles closing with large wicks to the downward. The RSI is also attempting to break above the oversold area, implying a short-term positive pullback to the previously breached $30K barrier. However, the bears have total control, and a collapse below the $24K level remains likely.
The futures market undoubtedly had an influential role in this collapse, since Bitcoin's open interest was unusually high even as the price fell from $48K to $37K in April. This gradual decline in open interest during a 20% drop indicated that many stop losses and liquidation targets of long positions were located below the $37K, $33K, and $28K support levels.
However, the open interest is still significantly greater than in May 2021 following the drop from the $64K ATH, indicating that the futures market is still hot, despite the current decline. Because high open interest results in significant volatility, this might be taken as a negative indication. Rising inflation, geopolitical events, and concerns about the Fed tightening monetary policy have all contributed to heightened market volatility.
The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday - the first time in more than 20 years - signalling that future rate hikes are likely and that the balance sheet runoff will begin in June. Some analysts believe TerraUSD (UST), one of the most popular stable currencies, also contributed to Bitcoin's fall this week. UST is supposed to be tethered to the dollar, but it plummeted to 29 cents this week and crashed in a simulated bank run as investors panicked and sold out their tokens.
Since December 25, 2021, the BTC price has not risen beyond $50,000. Despite the problems, Bitcoin has remained above its January low of less than $34,000, which was the lowest in the preceding six months. BTC price dropped by 40% since its all-time high above $68,000 on November 10, owing to rising inflation, a sluggish job market recovery, and the Fed's continuous signs that it will begin winding down the measures to assist the economy.
Despite a poor start to the year, Bitcoin entered 2021 on a high note, thanks to a robust November and early December that gave way to the recent downward trend. After beginning 2021 around the $30,000 level, Bitcoin rose throughout the year, reaching its current all-time high of $68,000 on November 10.
Despite decreasing dramatically from its most recent all-time high, many analysts believe BTC price will eventually surge beyond $100,000, describing it as a matter of when, not if.
Bitcoin reached its first high in 2021 when it surpassed $60,000 in April. Since then, the price fluctuation has highlighted the cryptocurrency's unpredictability when more individuals are eager to participate. Bitcoin bounced dramatically up and down in the weeks between a July low that brought it below $30,000 and its most recent peak in November.
Analysts’ Views of BTC Price
According to a crypto specialist, price fluctuations are expected for individuals who invest in crypto for the long term. Big drops are not a cause for concern, and he avoids reviewing his stocks during dangerous market falls.
Humphrey Yang's set it and forget it attitude to cryptocurrencies mirrors his approach to traditional stock market trading. Still, other experts believe Bitcoin is too distinct from traditional assets to draw historical similarities.
Recent price fluctuations have been accompanied by rising inflation, persistent uncertainty over the country's protracted battle with COVID-19, and new regulatory steps by the United States government, notably Biden's recent executive order.
Cryptocurrency Crime and Tax Evasion
A few main themes have developed about new cryptocurrency regulation in the US: preventing cryptocurrency crime and tax fraud, ensuring stable coin regulation, and the possibility for investment vehicles like crypto ETFs and other funds. The decentralised nature of digital currencies is a significant appeal for many crypto aficionados. However, regulatory guidelines can assist in protecting investors.
One proposal would broaden the definition of a brokerage to include firms that support digital asset trading, such as cryptocurrency exchanges. This type of move would imply higher tax reporting duty to assist the IRS in tracking crypto tax evasion.
Companies that facilitate crypto trades would be compelled to provide tax information about such exchanges to the IRS, beginning with the 2024 tax season, under a proposed new rule being examined by legislators.
Furthermore, Gensler has spoken about the necessity for increased legislation to help avoid future ransomware attacks.
Stable Coin Regulation
Stable coins are most utilised by sophisticated traders to decrease costs on crypto-to-crypto exchanges, but the Biden administration analysis suggests that stable coins may become a more general digital payment system. Because cryptocurrency is still in its infancy as an asset class, any new regulations may influence investors' portfolios.
According to Gensler, unscrupulous actors may be able to dodge public policy measures and other punishments targeted at preventing money laundering or guaranteeing tax compliance by avoiding the use of US dollars in direct crypto-to-crypto exchanges.
Cryptocurrencies ETFs are not now accessible in the US, but they may provide a future method for investors to invest in cryptocurrency without buying directly from an exchange. "There's not a method to acquire an asset that closely tracks the price of a certain cryptocurrency until an ETF is approved," explains Jeremy Schneider. That implies that the only method for investors to do so is to purchase coins directly from an exchange. If you are interested in cryptocurrency, these funds, like a traditional ETF or index fund, may help you diversify your assets among multiple coins.
Biden's Executive Order
President Joe Biden has authorised federal agencies to establish a plan for laws and regulations on digital assets such as bitcoin with the signing of a new executive order on cryptocurrency.
According to experts, the decision will assist in creating the regulatory clarity needed for significant institutional adoption of Bitcoin and other digital assets. Long-term investors may benefit from more stability in the usually turbulent crypto sector. After an early burst that saw the price of Bitcoin rise, it quickly dropped again.
Biden's directive also directs US authorities to ensure that the country's cryptocurrency regulations are consistent with US allies. It charges the Financial Stability Oversight Council to investigate any illegal financial issues. Furthermore, the law underlines the significance of a new central bank digital currency issued by the government. Biden's executive order is a timely reminder that US politicians are closely monitoring Bitcoin and how it may impact financial markets in the future. This should not persuade crypto investors to make quick adjustments to their long-term investment strategy.
Experts advise sticking to the most established cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and investing just what you are willing to lose or no more than 5% of your overall portfolio. Budget essentials such as emergency preparedness, debt repayment, and retirement savings should take precedence over Bitcoin investments. Regarding where to purchase and sell cryptocurrencies, stick with a well-known, high-volume cryptocurrency exchange.
China’s Ban on Financial Institutions from Cryptocurrency Business
China has prohibited financial institutions and payment businesses from offering cryptocurrency transaction services and has advised investors against speculative crypto trading.
According to a blockchain analysis business, a combination of factors has contributed to the recent sell-off, in which new short-term investors dumping their holdings in response to the latest decline may be adding to the reduction in Bitcoin's value. However, the stock and cryptocurrency markets have historically gained despite greater volatility and this is expected to continue. As a precaution, experts urge investors to keep investments small to handle volatility.
To conclude, if Bitcoin survives as a digital asset class, which it may, it will be seen as a high-risk asset class. As a result, it might see a significant gain in value in the future or go the other way and become worthless. Therefore, it remains to be seen if Bitcoin is indeed the future “world money".
Author: Emmanuel Baiden
7 years experience within the financial services sector most notably in Sales, Trading, research and writing articles within the crypto space. I have a bachelor's degree in International Business and a Master's in Investment and Risk Finance . I am also an associate member of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment.